tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-681148865964431927.post2302592786396581256..comments2023-11-05T01:40:27.910-07:00Comments on FOGG OF WAR: I Seem to Have Spoken Too Soon on Bush's Iran PolicyAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08399019375564825616noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-681148865964431927.post-77620799581408387792007-12-11T08:49:00.000-08:002007-12-11T08:49:00.000-08:00Iran does not currently have the ability to create...Iran does not currently have the ability to create weapons-grade uranium. Enriching to weapons-grade is orders of magnitude harder and more expensive than to fuel-grade. <BR/><BR/>On Bush, I think Bush would first switch to a softer stance on Iran because it's the politically safer thing to do--it keeps him from looking extreme or like he's nesting ulterior motives... either of these will fundamentally undermine his policy in the first place, as I said.<BR/><BR/>But second, it's actually probably a better idea to take a softer stance when you know, and it's public information that, an imminent and dangerous nuclear threat from Iran does not exist. A more long-term, negotiations-centered diplomatic process, rather than a hard-line one with threats of war, would be much lower risk, diplomatically.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08399019375564825616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-681148865964431927.post-60839945502271017292007-12-09T14:32:00.000-08:002007-12-09T14:32:00.000-08:00I'm curious about your definition of "successful" ...I'm curious about your definition of "successful" in describing Bush's Iran policy, considering that Iran hasn't stopped enriching uranium and he's still struggling to get the international cadre of potentially influential states to apply pressure.<BR/><BR/>Also, while the NIE downgraded the threat of Iran's program, keep mind mind that much of a weapons program involves how to put a bomb on a missile. They probably have much of the know-how to make a bomb. Uranium enrichment is the hardest part of the whole process, and that's the process they continue to pursue, in defiance of the Security Council. That probably warrants a continued touch policy.<BR/><BR/>And seriously, did you think that the NIE would come out and Bush would suddenly just say "oh, my bad, let's change course"?CMLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14303670855268401130noreply@blogger.com