tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-681148865964431927.post6582896356586030730..comments2023-11-05T01:40:27.910-07:00Comments on FOGG OF WAR: Captain Free, Pirates DeadAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08399019375564825616noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-681148865964431927.post-70132535373870416382009-04-13T10:50:00.000-07:002009-04-13T10:50:00.000-07:00Yes, excellent rebuttal--thanks. I have a few reas...Yes, excellent rebuttal--thanks. I have a few reasons to be a bit more optimistic:<BR/><BR/>1) Lots of these pirates see piracy as being like "playing the lottery..." or so I hear. They're not hardcore fanatics, they're looking to make a buck. This means that they can be rationally deterred more easily than many of the nutbags we're dealing with in the general region.<BR/><BR/>2) Things have been just peachy for pirates for the past few years, and that's led to a lot of recruitment--it's been a relatively low-risk operation. <BR/><BR/>3) I agree that rapid-response or shipside defense needs to be a part of big-boat shipping through the area. This is expensive, but if the risk for piracy goes up, then the demand for reward might go up among the marginal pirates that remain, which would make shipside defense relatively cheaper, and make the pirates hurt more (sortof a market for lemons kindof deal).<BR/><BR/>But you're right that more should be put into this.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08399019375564825616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-681148865964431927.post-18267125463712282312009-04-13T00:18:00.000-07:002009-04-13T00:18:00.000-07:00A good analysis as usual. You seem optimistic tho...A good analysis as usual. You seem optimistic though that the US can deter pirates by projecting "a strong likelihood of fatal failure." Although this is possible, considering the state that Somalia is in right now, (i.e. the state that would-be pirates come from) there's little to lose and much to gain by becoming a pirate. It would take a much different strategy from what we're doing now to stop these attacks. Either the US develops some kind of rapid reaction force in conjunction with shippers which can respond to most if not all attacks or the US has to work on land and keep people from becoming pirates, keep companies from paying pirates, and keep paid pirates from being able to use their money.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16787752701751557957noreply@blogger.com