Is done and turned in. I'll be working on publishing it.
It's posted here: http://web.mit.edu/efogg/Public/ErikFoggThesis.pdf
The abstract, if nothing else, is worth reading, though my findings are pretty cool. Ultimately, I am trying to use an old theory (Power Transition Theory) to explain a very large chunk of the wars throughout history. I make a number of conceptual changes to the theory and operationalize it with a very large (572,000 datapoint) database, testing the theory and creating a model.
The model has pretty good predictive power. I can predict the probability of war in a given dyad (over the past 200 years) with an average error rate of 5%, which is not bad.
Hope you enjoy.
I turned it in on Wednesday (signed and everything), and I graduate on June 5th.
Showing posts with label I. Show all posts
Showing posts with label I. Show all posts
Friday, May 15, 2009
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
My Spring Plans
This New Year's Eve, I'm on a bus to Boston--thus my excuse for writing now and not partying.
My excuse for writing about me is that there is absolutely nothing interesting going on in the world, especially Gaza, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, China, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, Israel, or Cuba.
Since, this New Year's Eve, the world is at peace, I'm going to take a break myself from criticizing soul-crushingly foolish government errors and analyzing gut-wrenchingly hopeless security spirals, and talk a bit about me, and what I'm doing this spring.
I'm not talking about this summer or the fall after that because I don't know what I'll be doing yet. I'm still looking for a job.
But that's not all I'm doing this spring. I have indeed landed myself an internship, which I'll be starting on the 5th of January, and continuing at ~20 hours/week through May. The internship is at Conflict Dynamics, International, a non-profit firm that works with the UN and lots of liberal-democracy governments to make specific policies on the sources of contention or insecurity in wars to try and end them (or prevent them from restarting). The president, Gerard Mc Hugh, has enough of a reputation with the folks that the works with that he gets to propose his own project ideas to them. Pretty cool stuff.
When I interviewed at CDI, I was continually distracted by the many maps on the walls. Very detailed, well-used maps of the Darfur region, and settlements, ethnoreligious densities, conflict sites, refugee camps, were all over the walls. Mr. Mc Hugh didn't mind my jaw-dropping in his office, and calmly asked me how my education was going.
"Great," I said. "I'll be finishing in 4 years." I was boasting a bit. But I was trying to impress the guy. Very few people work in that company, and I needed to show that I wouldn't be wasting CPU cycles, ink, coffee, or oxygen.
"Four years with a master's? That's impressive."
"I'm impatient," I replied. I am, it's true. But he probably didn't need to know that.
He chuckled. He has an Irish accent that took me the longest time to pin down: "I know the feeling."
"Oh? You get your Master's in 4 years, too?"
"Well, three, actually, but I was going to mention something else."*
So this guy, he's got a leg up on me. Got out of MIT quite a bit quicker than I did, and then decided he was going to be an independent consultant. My impression is that he started Conflict Dynamics because the demand for his time became too high for him to handle himself. So now, he's got his fingers in Sri Lanka, India, Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Columbia, probably a few other places. And me, I'm slack-jawed drooling, looking at these maps on his walls, and blubbering like an idiot as he asks me questions. I don't quite remember what I said, but it wasn't eloquent.
Sensing that I had no idea what the heck I was saying, he picks a problem for me to get my hands on: Sudan. I'll be working directly with him, right next to the guy, on a desk that was completely covered in books and papers last time I was there. I might be spending the first day cleaning it. I'll have a pretty hands-on role in (at least) electoral reform in Sudan to try to create a government with better minority representation (and better minority protection). This should do a few things:
1) Decrease the motivation for Darfurians to fight for independence.
2) Decrease the ability of the Arab-Muslim plurality to act single-handedly.
3) Try to resolve tensions between the north and south in parliament, rather than on the battlefield, which should make these Christian Africans more participatory, and allow them to act as political friends or allies of the Darfurians.
I'll probably end up working on other similar projects, too; we'll see. The coolest part is I will likely be taking a short trip to Khartoum to do some field research. Here's to hoping I don't get shot.
So that should take up most of my time that's not spent writing my thesis or going to the last few classes I have to squeak through. Then, I graduate--hopefully I'll have landed a gig by then.
*All this, of course, is paraphrasing from memory.
My excuse for writing about me is that there is absolutely nothing interesting going on in the world, especially Gaza, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, China, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, Israel, or Cuba.
Since, this New Year's Eve, the world is at peace, I'm going to take a break myself from criticizing soul-crushingly foolish government errors and analyzing gut-wrenchingly hopeless security spirals, and talk a bit about me, and what I'm doing this spring.
I'm not talking about this summer or the fall after that because I don't know what I'll be doing yet. I'm still looking for a job.
But that's not all I'm doing this spring. I have indeed landed myself an internship, which I'll be starting on the 5th of January, and continuing at ~20 hours/week through May. The internship is at Conflict Dynamics, International, a non-profit firm that works with the UN and lots of liberal-democracy governments to make specific policies on the sources of contention or insecurity in wars to try and end them (or prevent them from restarting). The president, Gerard Mc Hugh, has enough of a reputation with the folks that the works with that he gets to propose his own project ideas to them. Pretty cool stuff.
When I interviewed at CDI, I was continually distracted by the many maps on the walls. Very detailed, well-used maps of the Darfur region, and settlements, ethnoreligious densities, conflict sites, refugee camps, were all over the walls. Mr. Mc Hugh didn't mind my jaw-dropping in his office, and calmly asked me how my education was going.
"Great," I said. "I'll be finishing in 4 years." I was boasting a bit. But I was trying to impress the guy. Very few people work in that company, and I needed to show that I wouldn't be wasting CPU cycles, ink, coffee, or oxygen.
"Four years with a master's? That's impressive."
"I'm impatient," I replied. I am, it's true. But he probably didn't need to know that.
He chuckled. He has an Irish accent that took me the longest time to pin down: "I know the feeling."
"Oh? You get your Master's in 4 years, too?"
"Well, three, actually, but I was going to mention something else."*
So this guy, he's got a leg up on me. Got out of MIT quite a bit quicker than I did, and then decided he was going to be an independent consultant. My impression is that he started Conflict Dynamics because the demand for his time became too high for him to handle himself. So now, he's got his fingers in Sri Lanka, India, Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Columbia, probably a few other places. And me, I'm slack-jawed drooling, looking at these maps on his walls, and blubbering like an idiot as he asks me questions. I don't quite remember what I said, but it wasn't eloquent.
Sensing that I had no idea what the heck I was saying, he picks a problem for me to get my hands on: Sudan. I'll be working directly with him, right next to the guy, on a desk that was completely covered in books and papers last time I was there. I might be spending the first day cleaning it. I'll have a pretty hands-on role in (at least) electoral reform in Sudan to try to create a government with better minority representation (and better minority protection). This should do a few things:
1) Decrease the motivation for Darfurians to fight for independence.
2) Decrease the ability of the Arab-Muslim plurality to act single-handedly.
3) Try to resolve tensions between the north and south in parliament, rather than on the battlefield, which should make these Christian Africans more participatory, and allow them to act as political friends or allies of the Darfurians.
I'll probably end up working on other similar projects, too; we'll see. The coolest part is I will likely be taking a short trip to Khartoum to do some field research. Here's to hoping I don't get shot.
So that should take up most of my time that's not spent writing my thesis or going to the last few classes I have to squeak through. Then, I graduate--hopefully I'll have landed a gig by then.
*All this, of course, is paraphrasing from memory.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
China and Grad School
Things are happening! I just got a lot of interesting news this morning, in two parts.
News the first: I am going to grad school! I just got an offer from MIT to take a 5th year and get a Master's of Science in Political Science. I've said yes, but there are a few details to be worked out. I am likely to write my thesis on America's China Strategy, and why it needs to change. More on all that later.
News the second: I have received a job offer from Horizon Research Consultancy Group in Beijing. I am not sure what project I will be working on yet, nor the details of my stay, but I will be in China for at least 10 weeks (hopefully avoiding as much of the Olympics as I can). I am, in addition, hoping to stay as late as possible after the Internship ends so I can run around and travel; I want to get to Xi'an, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin, and Lhasa at a minimum.
I will be blogging about my experiences as long as I have an internet connection. I will be taking pictures and commenting on what I see throughout the country; I am hoping to both improve my Chinese language skills and my "cultural understanding," whatever that means.
More details on all of this to follow, too. I hope you are all excited to follow me through my travels.
News the first: I am going to grad school! I just got an offer from MIT to take a 5th year and get a Master's of Science in Political Science. I've said yes, but there are a few details to be worked out. I am likely to write my thesis on America's China Strategy, and why it needs to change. More on all that later.
News the second: I have received a job offer from Horizon Research Consultancy Group in Beijing. I am not sure what project I will be working on yet, nor the details of my stay, but I will be in China for at least 10 weeks (hopefully avoiding as much of the Olympics as I can). I am, in addition, hoping to stay as late as possible after the Internship ends so I can run around and travel; I want to get to Xi'an, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin, and Lhasa at a minimum.
I will be blogging about my experiences as long as I have an internet connection. I will be taking pictures and commenting on what I see throughout the country; I am hoping to both improve my Chinese language skills and my "cultural understanding," whatever that means.
More details on all of this to follow, too. I hope you are all excited to follow me through my travels.
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