An Inkling of Democratic Thought?

Talked to a few coworkers at lunch today, and they asked me, among other things, about American views of the Iraq War, the structure of American Government, and American Elections (they were more surprised than I'd think they would be that Americans are "angry" about Iraq). In case anyone's curious, I didn't say most of this in Chinese, it was a bit beyond me.

Anyway.

When I got to talking about elections, they got pretty excited. These three, at least, follow the US elections pretty closely, and are rooting for the Democratic party because they think the Democrats will be "nicer to China." I am not quite sure how true that would be, given the Democrats' postition on imports/tariffs/"jobs," etc, but it's up in the air which party would try to beat on China harder.

Anyway.

The interesting part of this all, of course, was we started talking about Chinese village-level elections, and how my three unnamed friends secretly hoped that someday, democracy would come to China. They said "there's nothing we can do," and predicted that it would take decades--probably after they died.

I provided a devil's advocacy of the position, mentioning the village-level, city, and experimental provincial-governor-level elections. If these do become widespread (and the trend is upward, and the Party supports it), there may be some unintended consequences for the Party. While every candidate must be approved by the Party, there is a potential for divergence. If every provincial-and-lower election has two candidates, they are likely to polarize to some degree (by Duverger's Law). For example: in a Shanghai election, there may be a candidate supported by Labor, and one by Business... this may happen in Chengdu, Beijing... and if this becomes persistent, if there emerges a common thread that divides two candidates in each city, province, village, then they may begin to try to support each other. A Pro-Business Mayor may support a Pro-Business village-head, etc. Then you've got organization, and then you've got quasi-Parties. And as long as they keep pretending to be the Communist Party, there's not much that can be done (in the sortof passive-aggressive tradition of Chinese politics).

Then, China would be one bold stroke, one schism, one terrible argument away from a two-party system. Then, like Taiwan, like Korea, the whole dictatorial system would come crashing down.

But that's the optimistic perspective... there are others. And even this would take decades. But the trend is good, and there is hope. As long as people keep secretly wanting democracy, as long as they quietly and cleverly express their desires and their criticisms, as long as the proxies past the Great Firewall keep working, as long as the Sino-US travel keeps increasing, ideas will flow, and spread. The CCP can stop people from talking, but they can't stop people from thinking, even if it is just an inkling of Democratic thought.

A Report on Chinese Urban Youth

Yesterday was my first real tangle with Chinese urban youth; and I was in for a surprise. After a lovely dinner with some coworkers, we went out to a pretty-upscale bar in the district I live in. It started out quietly, but filled up around 10PM. It almost resembled a club--the floor was full of kids standing (we had managed to get a table early), and college-age girls jumped up onto tables and started dancing with a very western flair. Their hair was largely western, as were their clothes. The music played was American hip hop, and these kids knew it much better than I do (not that I know it well at all in the first place), and were quite into it. Tonight, we went to a shopping district and saw more Chinese kids running around malls, karaoke bars, etc.


Glitz in Western Beijing


And, of Course, the Glam


A Road Packed with Clubs and Bars


Upscale Shopping in Western Beijing


My feelings of how fun all of this was aside, the experience was enlightening.


The conclusions to be drawn from this are simple; consumerism is a bigger part of most kids' lives than nationalism. Not to say that nationalism isn't huge--the kids have certainly bought into the "<3 China" campaign launched since the earthquake in Sichuan, and have a great deal of pride in China, but so do other countries, certainly, like the US. But in their daily lives, among friends, pop culture has a greater hold (again, like the US). These wealthy urban kids--China's future--are happily swimming in China's new consumer culture; they enjoy spending, dressing up, going out. They also keep telling me they think that China's relationship with the US is extremely important and valuable, and polls of these kids agree wholeheartedly.

So ultimately, I am beginning to believe that, despite rather rampant nationalism, these kids aren't going to become the foundation of an angry, aggressive China. They'll be the foundation of a more tame, money-obsessed one. And as far as foreign policy goes, that's great.