Tight Race a Test for America's Iraq

Can Iraq be a functional Democracy?

This question rests on the minds of every foreign policymaker in the United States.

So far, so good. Minimal violence marred the election, and over 60% of Iraqis turned out (this is about as good as most Western democracies).

But the big test is still coming. The race is tight. US-picked Nouri al-Maliki is in a tight race with Sunni rival Allawi--and might just lose.

But either way, neither is likely to get a majority in his alliance right away, which means that a long period of coalition-building awaits the budding Iraqi parliament. Such political grinds are typical of most parliamentary systems, but the question will be whether Iraq can handle it.

If I had to guess, I'd guess that Iraq's democracy is unlikely to collapse or even suffer a major crisis. No matter who wins, getting ethnic/religious/political minorities in their coalition will, to some extent, be necessary. Sunnis and Shiites alike will be represented in the ruling coalition of the government--the question is really only "how much?" And frankly, the Sunnis should be used to being a minority representative (but if they are a key player in the coalition, then they have virtual veto power), and the Shiites are unlikely to begin slaughtering Sunnis or Kurds if they cannot hold an election despite a 60% majority--most reports are that losing parties are likely to sit back and reconsider their election strategies.

In fact, a tough and indecisive election while US troops still remain may be an excellent low-pressure opportunity for the Iraqi political system to learn how to deal with gridlock, with toss-up. For it will, indeed, come again, and next time, nobody will be there to help sort out the cards.

But if it should succeed, then the day may be won for the United States in a more significant way than anyone imagined since the naive days of 2003. The embarrassingly premature "Mission Accomplished" banner might possibly be unfurled, correctly this time, 7 years after its original debut.

An Inkling of Democratic Thought?

Talked to a few coworkers at lunch today, and they asked me, among other things, about American views of the Iraq War, the structure of American Government, and American Elections (they were more surprised than I'd think they would be that Americans are "angry" about Iraq). In case anyone's curious, I didn't say most of this in Chinese, it was a bit beyond me.

Anyway.

When I got to talking about elections, they got pretty excited. These three, at least, follow the US elections pretty closely, and are rooting for the Democratic party because they think the Democrats will be "nicer to China." I am not quite sure how true that would be, given the Democrats' postition on imports/tariffs/"jobs," etc, but it's up in the air which party would try to beat on China harder.

Anyway.

The interesting part of this all, of course, was we started talking about Chinese village-level elections, and how my three unnamed friends secretly hoped that someday, democracy would come to China. They said "there's nothing we can do," and predicted that it would take decades--probably after they died.

I provided a devil's advocacy of the position, mentioning the village-level, city, and experimental provincial-governor-level elections. If these do become widespread (and the trend is upward, and the Party supports it), there may be some unintended consequences for the Party. While every candidate must be approved by the Party, there is a potential for divergence. If every provincial-and-lower election has two candidates, they are likely to polarize to some degree (by Duverger's Law). For example: in a Shanghai election, there may be a candidate supported by Labor, and one by Business... this may happen in Chengdu, Beijing... and if this becomes persistent, if there emerges a common thread that divides two candidates in each city, province, village, then they may begin to try to support each other. A Pro-Business Mayor may support a Pro-Business village-head, etc. Then you've got organization, and then you've got quasi-Parties. And as long as they keep pretending to be the Communist Party, there's not much that can be done (in the sortof passive-aggressive tradition of Chinese politics).

Then, China would be one bold stroke, one schism, one terrible argument away from a two-party system. Then, like Taiwan, like Korea, the whole dictatorial system would come crashing down.

But that's the optimistic perspective... there are others. And even this would take decades. But the trend is good, and there is hope. As long as people keep secretly wanting democracy, as long as they quietly and cleverly express their desires and their criticisms, as long as the proxies past the Great Firewall keep working, as long as the Sino-US travel keeps increasing, ideas will flow, and spread. The CCP can stop people from talking, but they can't stop people from thinking, even if it is just an inkling of Democratic thought.

Pakistan On the Brink

It seems Musharraf has shown his true colors.

Musharraf has suspended the constitution, declared a state of emergency, and arrested his political opposition. Now, with no functioning supreme court, his recent electoral victory is unable to be confirmed, and former Prime Minister Bhutto's party has had its legs cut out. The optimism Pakistan seemed to have for the Musharraf-Bhutto power-sharing plan may collapse.

What next, then? Will parliamentary elections be pushed back? Does Musharraf plan for them to happen at all? His allies in the military make him strong enough to possibly keep his hold over the country indefinitely. But without allies among the populace, he won't be able to defeat the growing Islamic Extremism in his country, as he is promising to do.

And should this crisis not be averted, should the United States look to finding a new ally in Pakistan? The United States supported many brutal, doomed dictators during the Cold War to try and push back Communism-- are we doomed to repeat that mistake in the war on Al Qaeda?

Most importantly for the US, Pakistan's stability is at grave risk. If Musharraf does not soon bring Pakistan back from the brink, his loyal military forces may be so busy keeping average citizens at bay that they will not be able to keep the growing Al Qaeda influence in check.