Friday, May 15, 2009

My Thesis

Is done and turned in. I'll be working on publishing it.

It's posted here: http://web.mit.edu/efogg/Public/ErikFoggThesis.pdf

The abstract, if nothing else, is worth reading, though my findings are pretty cool. Ultimately, I am trying to use an old theory (Power Transition Theory) to explain a very large chunk of the wars throughout history. I make a number of conceptual changes to the theory and operationalize it with a very large (572,000 datapoint) database, testing the theory and creating a model.

The model has pretty good predictive power. I can predict the probability of war in a given dyad (over the past 200 years) with an average error rate of 5%, which is not bad.

Hope you enjoy.

I turned it in on Wednesday (signed and everything), and I graduate on June 5th.
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