Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Foggofwar Prediction: Inertia Will Keep the UK In the EU

Just as inertia and fear of disruption kept Scotland from declaring independence from the UK, I think the same inertia will keep the UK in the EU.

Quick context: there's been talk for a while of potentially exiting the EU and Prime Minister David Cameron is pledging to have a 2017 referendum on the question if the Tories win a majority.

But they won't.

Fivethirtyeight predicts a slim Conservative victory over Labor and pretty much no chance of getting an outright majority.

UK General Election Prediction by Fivethirtyeight


Wales is staunchly against withdrawal--most support comes from the English countryside. But even that support for withdrawal has been dropping after a solid four years (2010-2013) of consistent majority.

The window may have passed.

Labour has made it clear that they'd support a referendum if the UK were to lose more sovereignty to the EU, but that's unlikely--the resurgence in nationalism throughout all of Europe is making it unlikely that the Continent will unite any time soon to give the EU more power. Almost everyone seems a bit grumpy with how much power the EU has now, but not enough to seriously consider leaving.

The UK leaving--unlike, say, Greece--could trigger a mass exodus of "satellite" states, from Poland to Portugal. The fact that it won't leave means we're going to see some ongoing stability--but the threat that it might have left will keep the EU from getting more powerful.
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